The only clear opponents in the General Election are Fine Gael and Sinn Fein, and neither will go in with the other after the election results are in. Fianna Fail have ruled out those two, and while Micheal Martin would be hopeful of that, his party would choose to go in with either (preferably Sinn Fein, if Gerry stepped aside for Mary Lou), and either of the two parties would go in with Fianna Fail.
As today went by, politicians (except Enda Kenny) were distancing themselves from the possibility of being in government with Independent Michael Lowry. Lowry was a former Fine Gael Minister, and the rest is history.
Labour. Well…..what can you say about Labour? They’ll be so depleted after it’s all over, that their few numbers could come in handy for the bigger parties wanting power.
Choice is available to everyone, writes David Flynn. Fianna Fail could opt to go in with either Fine Gael or Sinn Fein, but they will look to see what is in the rest of the mix first, ie Renua, Social Democrats and Shane’s Ross’s Independent Alliance, and some other Independents. FF will first look to see if there are any Independents elected from their gene pool, ie ex-FF. Fine Gael will look at all of those options too, but not Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein will do likewise, but not with Fine Gael.
The only thing that will save the leaderships of Micheal Martin and Joan Burton is if they are able to negotiate a position in the next government. Remember that’s what saved Albert Reynolds in 1992, after he led Fianna Fail to a defeat of nine seats in that years November election. He negotiated with Dick Spring’s Labour and they made a government that lasted two years.
Enda Kenny and Gerry Adams leaderships are safe for the foreseeable future.
At this remove, (RTE’s Micheal Lehane tweeted earlier today that there are rumours the election will be on Thursday, February 25th) it is hard to see who will be in with who. But as said earlier they all have choices. However my early prediction is Fine Gael/Labour/Renua and Shane Ross and a handful of his Independents to lead after this election.